Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 13 Aug 2014 13:00 to Wed 13 Aug 2014 18:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 13 Aug 2014 13:39
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/PUCIK

Below a strong southwesterly jet, a northward advection of moisture is ongoing over the Pannonian Plain into Slovakia, the eastern Czech Republic and south Poland. This northward advection of moisture will strengthen further as pressure falls occur across north Austria ahead of an approaching mid-/upper level trough.

Much in line with the ECMWF model, dew point temperatures will rise to 20-23 C across much of Hungary and to around 20 C across the northern part of the area. The 12 UTC Budapest sounding showed 1200 J/kg of 50 hPa MLCAPE. It appears likely that 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will be in place across much of the region later this afternoon, as a result of further moistening and solar heating under gradully clearing skies.

Models predict convective initiation to occur near a northwestward advancing warm front, that at 13 UTC was located near the Slovak/Hungarian and Austro-Hungarian borders.

Given low CIN in the 12 UTC Budapest sounding, initiation may occur in the 16-18 UTC time frame. Shear will be more than adequate for supercell storms with strong low-level rotation, in particular since the SSWly low-level jet should intensify further during the comign hours.

There will be a threat of tornadoes that may be strong and of very heavy rainfall. It is possible that some NEward travelling bowing systems will develop as well. Some large hail may occur too.

After 18 UTC the severe weather threat, will probably shift northward and include regions north of the indicated area.