Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 19 Feb 2014 06:00 to Thu 20 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Feb 2014 00:49
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for parts of western Italy, northern / northwestern Adriatics mainly for marginally large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for excessive precipitation.


SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Ahead of the trough over the western Mediterranean, a WAA regime on its forward flank over Italy and the Adriatics will end with the passage of rather insignificant cold front. To the east of the front, a belt of steep mid-level lapse rates is advected from southwest, yielding modest CAPE values, on the order of hundreds J/kg. Mid-level jet overspreads part of the unstable airmass, so that at least slight overlap of moderate to strong wind shear and instability will be likely tomorrow. DMC will be initiated by the progressing cold front and in the areas with more favourable overlap, well organised DMC is not ruled out, including some low topped supercells capable of marginally large hail and/or severe wind gusts. Northern Adriatics might also see some more persistent, heavy precip fed by convection. Only low-end Level 1 is issued for this scenario as instability should be marginal at best in this case.