Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 16 Feb 2014 06:00 to Mon 17 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Feb 2014 04:29
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for SE France, NW and NE Italy mainly for a slight chance of tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure center is present west of Norway with western Europe in its maritime cold airmass and the frontal boundary stretching from the Baltic countries to the Alps, southern France and northeastern Spain, where a frontal wave and upper shortwave trough are located. Over the Atlantic a new occluded front approaches Ireland and later Portugal from the west, with slightly unstable conditions. The Spanish wave migrates during the night to the western Alpine area where moist Mediterranean air flows ashore and in models displays a slightly unstable stratification. Vertical shear is strong with more than 30 m/s deep layer shear, 300 mē/sē 0-3 km SREH and over 10 m/s 0-1 km shear vector length at the end of the night. This creates a setup favorable for brief mesocyclone development in storms which may produce an isolated tornado.
Isolated thunderstorms may occur between the English Channel and Poland as well as the eastern parts of the North Sea.
