Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 02 Feb 2014 06:00 to Mon 03 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Feb 2014 03:26
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking high pressure area is centered over Ukraine. At its west side, mid level warm air advects northward as far as Finland, but at the surface the warm plume only reaches the southern Alps. Atlantic low pressure systems touch the westernmost countries (Portugal, British Isles, Norway). The central Mediterranean is affected by a weakening low pressure system over Italy. Low CAPE mainly exists between Sicily and Crete. The stagnant dynamics pose a low threat and the shear environment is moderate. There does not seem to be enough energy left to support significant hail threats. Early Monday an occluded cold front arrives in Portugal and Galicia with marginal CAPE and very strong low to mid level wind shear. A tornado threat may be present, but the overlap of mainly postfrontal instability and prefrontal shear appears very fragile.