Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 12 Dec 2013 06:00 to Fri 13 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Dec 2013 21:59
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Very strong and broad ridge covers most of Europe. The southerly jet stream will stay over the Atlantic and frontal systems will only affect Portugal and the British Isles, where maritime air masses with weak lapse rates are expected.

Scandinavia will be affected by a storm forming at the cyclonically sheared flank of a strong jet streak. Given very dry air in the wake of the Scandinavian mountains, deep moist convection is not expected.

Across eastern Europe, the very dry boundary layer air mass remains. Even across the Black Sea, where moisture may be a little bit better, it seems that thunderstorms are too unlikely to issue a 15-percent line.

Best chances for a few storms exist across the north Mediterranean Sea, with slightly better boundary-layer moisture and increasing lapse rates due to a central European cut-off low digging south-westward.