Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Nov 2013 06:00 to Wed 13 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Nov 2013 22:10
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 1 was issued for parts of the central Mediterranean mainly for extreme precipitation, and to a lesser extent for tornadoes/waterspouts.

SYNOPSIS

The main players are a large cut-off low located between Sicily and Tunisia, which is filled with unstable air, a shortwave trough north of Scotland which moves eastward to reach Scandinavia early on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Central Mediterranean...

Small clusters of thunderstorms are expected both near the low's centre and in the warm advection regime to its east. Where the flow is upslope and.or coastal convergence takes place, some extreme accumulations of rain may occur locally. The risk is highest along the western coasts of the southern Balkans and southern Sicily. In addition, a number of waterspouts and tornadoes may occur.

Scotland and Norway...

Embedded within a strong westerly flow, with 20-25 m/s wind speeds at 850 hPa, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast. They will bring strong wind gusts, which may locally exceed 25 m/s. Because of the marginal convective component of these gusts, a risk level seems not appropriate.