Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 06 Nov 2013 06:00 to Thu 07 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 05 Nov 2013 22:44
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Crete, parts of the Aegean Sea and the southwestern coastline of Turkey mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Most of Europe will be under a strong zonal flow at mid to upper troposphere, pushing the ridge across Iberia towards Italy during the forecast period. Betweeen the ridge and a disturbance to the north, particularly pronounced geopotential gradient will yield anticyclonically curved jet-stream with windspeeds over 50 m/s at 500 and over 70 m/s at 300 hPa. A frontal boundary will push quickly eastwards during the day with warm front affecting Central Europe. East of these features, a deep trough will translate eastwards.

Actually, the southern base of the trough, centered over the Ionian Sea and the area on its western flanks will likely be the only region worth a closer look regarding DMC. Rather cold mid-levels will contribute to the marginal to moderate degree of latent instability. Ahead of the trough center, pronounced PVA will contribute to the high coverage of DMC. Strong low-level flow, with 850 hPa windspeeds between 15-20 m/s will transport moderately moist airmass towards the southwestern coastline of Turkey. In this belt, some marginal threat of excessive precipitation and/or of tornadoes (enhanced low level shear) is forecast.



DISCUSSION

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