Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 14 Jun 2013 06:00 to Sat 15 Jun 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Jun 2013 20:14
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for E Romania, S Ukraine and E Bulgaria mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A meandering WSWerly flow is present over the western and northern parts of Europe with numerous embedded shortwave troughs. Most instability is found close to the center of each low pressure system which limits the threat of severe weather. The occurrence of isolated severe wind gusts is possible when a low pressure system moves across Ireland in the evening / night hours. Due to the fact that the convective contribution to the maximum wind speeds should be quite low, no threat level is issued.

The more interesting feature is found over eastern Europe: A plume of very warm and moist air is located over the Black Sea region. Even though there is virtually almost no vertical shear, pulsating single-cell thunderstorms or briefly organized multicells may produce isolated large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Due to the fact that the storm motion will be rather slow, there is a chance of excessive precipitation especially over SW Ukraine.