Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Feb 2013 06:00 to Fri 01 Mar 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Feb 2013 18:59
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Weak geopotential affects southern Europe, and dry, cold air has spread into the Mediterranean. Deep cold air is present across Iberia in the range of a cut-off low that slowly moves eastward Ahead of this trough a strong south-westerly jet streak will spread into the west Mediterranean on Thursday. QG forcing is expected and decreasing lapse rates are forecast especially at the cyclonically-sheared flank of the mid-level jet streak. This may result in weak CAPE. Limiting factor will be the poor low-level moisture that is advected from the Iberian Peninsula. Therefore, likelihood of thunderstorms seems to be pretty low. Additionally, weak vertical wind shear in the wake of a surface cold front will also limit the chance of organized convection.