Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 Feb 2013 06:00 to Thu 14 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Feb 2013 21:37
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A particularly deep trough over the Central Mediterranean should undergo a slow cut-off process, transforming into the cyclonic vortex as a ridge will stretch from Atlantic into Western Europe. Thanks to the strong northerly flow in the wake of the cyclonic vortex, cold airmass will continue spreading over the Mediterranean with WAA confined only to the Aegean Sea ahead of the progressing frontal system.

DMC will be confined mostly to the two regions:

A/ ahead of the cold-front in the tongue of moister airmass reaching to the southwestern, southern coastline of Greece and further into the Aegean. The highest coverage can be expected over the Northern Aegean, which will be situated in the left-exit region of the jet-stream and towards the morning also close to the SW coastline of Turkey.

B/ in the post frontal airmass characterized by mid-level lapse rates steeper than 7K/km. The highest coverage is expected in the southern sector of the Central Mediterranean (e.g. the Ionian sea)

Due to the meager overlap of marginal instability (lack of abundant low-level moisture) and areas of the strong vertical wind shear, no threat levels seem to be necessary attm. Perhaps it might be worth of mention that several rounds of DMC are possible over the western and northern coastline of Greece with marginal threat of excessive precip.