Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 10 Feb 2013 06:00 to Mon 11 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Feb 2013 07:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for northern Spain mainly for a chance of severe convective windgusts or tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive convective precipitation and waterspout-type tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for southern Italy to Albania mainly for waterspout-type tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
A new Atlantic low filled with cold upper air enters the Celtic Sea and moves via northern Spain and southern France into the Mediterranean, following up its predecessor, which is affecting the central Mediterranean region and Aegean Sea area with convective activity.
DISCUSSION
...N Spain...
The passage of the cold fron during the afternoon could have some CAPE asssociated with it, although more substantial values will follow after the front. The cold front is under a strong upper jet and low level flow (30 m/s mean 1-3 km wind speed), and storm-relative helicity up to some 250 mē/sē. Severe wind gusts could be produced if a convective line forms, and an isolated tornado is not ruled out
...Italy and Turkey regions....
Waterspout type tornadoes are possible in convergence lines and near vorticity centers which are present in both areas. Storms will persist for a long time in the Turkey area, so that here and there severe precipitation sums may be reached.
