Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 04 Feb 2013 06:00 to Tue 05 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 04 Feb 2013 00:38
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The active branch of the polar vortex reorganizes, so cold and unsettled conditions continue over most of Europe, although the air mass features mostly low-end moisture values. A cut-off development atop the C/E-Mediterranean results in better moisture along its eastern fringe which increases thunderstorm chances somewhat from the S-Ionian Sea into the Aegean Sea.

This pattern will be a quiet one for thunderstorm development although a few areas were highlighted for some isolated activity. The thunderstorms will be sub-severe although convection over Ireland, UK, Belgium/the Netherlands and far NW Germany may be accompanied by strong to isolated severe wind gusts given strong LL flow. Marginal hail will be another issue given rapidly cooling lower/mid troposphere.