Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Jan 2013 06:00 to Mon 14 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 13 Jan 2013 06:13
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for northern Sardinia, western Italy and northern Adriatic coastal region mainly for a chance of tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A longwave trough with cold unstable airmass slides over the Mediterranean Sea. A surface low has developed south of France, moving east. A strong jet rounds the low and most unstable air (CAPE a few hundred J/kg). There is an overlap of CAPE, 25 m/s 0-6 km shear magnitude, and 10 m/s 0-1 km shear in the indicated level 1 areas, which may lead to isolated mesocyclonic storms with chance of producing tornadoes. Near Croatia the hodographs will become very large and circular during the late evening with SREH over 250 m²/s². There is hardly CAPE predicted but convective development cannot be ruled out with strong forcing passing through. Over western central Italy (east of Corsica), local excessive precipitation may occur as result of more or less persistent backbuilding storms rding the coastline and convergence line set up by the Ligurian low..
During the night a convergence line will develop between the Catalonian coast and Balearic islands, a focus for new convective development, despite more marginal instability.