Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 05 Jan 2013 06:00 to Sun 06 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 04 Jan 2013 17:39
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS

The high-amplitude upper flow pattern persists over Europe, with a quasi-stationary longwave trough anchored over the eastern portions of the forecasting area. An amplifying shortwave disturbance will round the base of this trough late on Saturday and cause cyclogenesis over the eastern portions of the Mediterranean Sea.

DISCUSSION

... Adriatic Sea ... Ionian Sea ... southern Mediterranean Sea ...

Weak CAPE is simulated ahead of the Mediterranean vorticity maximum. As the environment will be rather CAPE-starved here exists some uncertainty about whether the depth of the cells will be sufficient for widespread lightning. It seems that the convection will be focused near the DVCA-related upward-motion regime, which should intensify during the evening and overnight hours as it progresses from the Adriatic Sea into the southern Mediterranean. The lightning probability should thus increase gradually from the central Adriatic Sea (early Saturday evening) towards the Ionian/southern-Mediterranean Sea early Sunday morning).

The severe threat should be rather low, though a few strong outflow wind gusts could occur especially over the central Adriatic Sea, where some 30 m/s DLS will be available (though the convection may be rather shallow there), but overall severe-weather probabilities are too low for a LVL1 area.