Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 23 Dec 2012 06:00 to Mon 24 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 23 Dec 2012 05:13
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the south coast of Turkey for a chance of waterspout type tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A very calm day with deep convection only possible near low pressure areas situated over the Atlantic and between Crete and Turkey. Warmer air over western Europe is gaining terrain over the cold mass of air dominating northern and eastern Europe. The warm front starts invading Germany and should reach eastern Poland by the end of the period, while also Italy and the Balkan starting to warm up steadily. During the night new convection with isolated thunder is possible as cold unstable air reaches western Ireland.

DISCUSSION

...Crete to southern Turkey...

A stationary low with very weak flow in low to mid levels and a few hundred J/kg CAPE and nearly saturated profiles provide good conditions for formation of waterspouts, particularly in the vorticity and convergence zones provided by the low pressure center.