Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 21 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sat 22 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Dec 2012 21:18
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A plume of subtropical air makes its way towards western and central Europe on Friday. At the same time, geopotential heights drop over the eastern Mediterranean. Deep moist convection should be confined to the S Adriatic / Ionian and Aegean Sea. Due to the very low instability, even 25 - 30 m/s of 0-6 km deep layer shear will probably not lead to more than one or two possible severe wind / tornado events. The main thunderstorm activity is expected over the warm sea regions.

During the night to Saturday, some non-convective severe wind gusts may occur over Ireland and UK due to an approaching low pressure system.