Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 19 Dec 2012 06:00 to Thu 20 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 18 Dec 2012 22:34
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A large arctic anticyclone resides over Russia, filled with very cold airmass. Most of Europe is covered in modified polar, rather dry and stable airmass. A mid-level ridge will slowly translate from Atlantic towards the continental Europe, singaling WAA / warm front passage over Western Europe. This front is tied to a large, deep cyclone over the Atlantic. Short-wave trough associated with the cyclonic vortex will affect NW Iberia during the late evening / night hours with slight possiblity of electrified DMC thanks to enhanced low-level moisture in the southerly flow. Nevertheless, weak lapse rates will likely preclude any significant instability build-up.

More prominent convective activity is forecast over the Eastern Mediterranean region. Very deep cyclonic vortex along with surface cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea will contribute to the favourable forcing over the region. Surface cyclone will translate towards Southern Turkey during the Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level lapse rates will spread around the vortex, nosing towards the Aegean Sea. This will contribute to at least marginal latent instability release. A severe weather potential will exist over Southern Turkey, but mostly east of our forecast region where stronger southerly flow should be observed. Therefore, we go without a Level 1 atm.