Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 13 Dec 2012 06:00 to Fri 14 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Dec 2012 05:22
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The deep European trough moves north-eastward. From the Atlantic, a new trough enters western Europe and leads to warm air advection. Ahead of this trough, the weak low-level moisture will start to recover across the Bay of Biscay and the west Mediterranean Sea. Focus of convective activity will be a short-wave trough centred over the Bay of Biscay that will move eastward into France. It will be associated with rather steep lapse rates that will overlap with the increasing moisture over the Bay of Biscay and north-west Mediterranean Sea. Low-level convergence will lead to initiation during the day along the coasts. Severe thunderstorms are not expected as vertical wind shear will be weak over the sea.