Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 06 Dec 2012 06:00 to Fri 07 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Dec 2012 22:37
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION

A deep trough is placed across Europe. Especially at mid-levels, cold air masses spread southward into the Mediterranean Sea. Over the relatively warm sea surface of the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea, steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. Weak convective inhibition and low-level moisture increase above the sea will be supportive for convection. Given the rather weak moisture as well as rather low-topped storms, some lightning is well possible and have been observed across the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea in the past hours. On Thursday, thunderstorms seem to be most likely over the Adriatic Sea and Aegean, but isolated storms may also form across the North Sea at the end of the period, given another mid-level trough moving southward. Although deep layer vertical wind shear is strong over most places, storms are expected to be too shallow and weak to become well-organized. Brief waterspouts may be possible, but overall threat is expected to be marginal.

Across Germany, a narrow cold frontal precipitation band has developed in the evening hours that will affect southern Germany in the morning hours. Some lightning will be possible there as well. Severe weather is not expected given the marginal instability.