Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 01 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 02 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 Nov 2012 20:49
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for the E-Aegean Sea and W/NW Turkey mainly for heavy rain, isolated large hail, strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

The big trough is comfortable over Europe and brings cold and unsettled conditions to many parts. Weak ridging extends into parts of extreme NW Europe wich does not mean that stable conditions exist as fronts move in from the west.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean Sea and W-Turkey ...

Weak surface cold front dissolves over the Aegean Sea beneath strong southwesterlies, which keep the DLS enhanced (15-20 m/s). Prefrontal moist and warm air mass surges towards the W-coast of Turkey and keeps MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range over the E-Aegean Sea. Therefore, repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms are forecast, which might produce heavy rain, although no real focus is seen for training activity. Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts accompany strongest storms. Also, an isolated tornado event is possible mainly in the level 1 area, where LL shear and some onshore CAPE overlap.

For the rest of the lightning areas in the Mediterranean, E-Atlantic and the North Sea, nothing severe is anticipated.