Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 02 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sat 03 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 01 Nov 2012 20:26
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep cold-core vortex is situated just north of Scotland and dictates the weather over most part of Europe. Conditions become windy for parts of W/C-Europe as a 45 m/s mid-level jet evolves along the S fringe of that vortex. Phasing of the subtropical and polar jet over the Iberian Peninsula also enhances the wind field mainly at mid and upper levels.

A few areas in Europe see some marginal (Slovenia into Hungary) to moderate (E-Bulgaria to the W-Black Sea) MLCAPE with weak (10 m/s over Bulgaria) to strong (20 m/s over Slovenia) 6 km bulk shear. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms affect the highlighted areas S of the Alps until 15Z with scattered to widespread CI over far E Bulgaria and the W-Black Sea at 15Z onwards. No severe risk is anticipated with those storms.

Sub-severe DMC over N/NW-Europe beneath the broad vortex with cold mid-levels occurs all day long.

Beyond 00Z, an approaching moist air mass from the subtropics may be accompanied by an isolated thunderstorm but weak lapse rates preclude any severe risk. Heavy rain spreads ashore but remains below our level risks.