Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 05 Oct 2012 06:00 to Sat 06 Oct 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 04 Oct 2012 22:07
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of the SE Baltic Sea and Lithuania for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A zonal flow pattern has established during the past 24 h and continues during the forecast period. High surface pressure and geopotential heights with influx of dry low-tropospheric air result in only sporadic and non-severe thunderstorm activity. The highest probabilities for an isolated strong thunderstorm event exist over W-Turkey, where somewhat better CAPE evolves (more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE along the coasts). Weak shear precludes anything severe.

Despite a marginal looking set-up for DMC, one focus arises for a strongly forced line of probably low-topped storms, affecting the S-Baltic Sea, N parts of Poland and parts of Lithuania as a rapidly strengthening depression races east. Limited moisture and therefore very low-end CAPE with warm EL temperatures keep confidence in any electrified activity low. However, that part of the cold front, which moves offshore (atop the S-Baltic Sea), may see enough LL CAPE support for a better defined line of showers and a sporadic and short lived thunderstorm event. A level 1 was added for the SE Baltic Sea and Lithuania as better structured line sgements, somewhat enhanced CAPE, impressive forcing and 30-35 m/s winds in the lowest 2 km overlap. Any shower may be abel to enhance the downward momentum and any more solid line could easily produce a swath of severe wind gusts. No lightning area was added due to the aforementioned negative points, but we think that adequate CAPE/convection will be present to cover this risk with a level area.

Sporadic but non-severe thunderstorm activity is forecast over the North Sea/W-Scotland and N-Ireland but again no lightning area was issued.