Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Jul 2012 06:00 to Wed 18 Jul 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jul 2012 22:57
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for parts of western Russia mainly for large hail, severe winds, tornadoes and excessive convective rainfalls.

SYNOPSIS

A broad long-wave trough continues to move across Eastern Europe and western Russia on Tuesday. One short wave trough with a frontal zone approaches UK from the west. Another impulse crosses central Europe. At surface, the low centered over Scandinavia finally weakens while slowly shifting northeast. Additionally, a secondary low forms over western Russia in response to an intense trough axis crossing the region. Severe storms are expected along and just ahead of a strong cold front there.

DISCUSSION

... Eastern Europe into western Russia ...

As in the previous days, an active trough will produce another swath of severe weather over parts of Eastern Europe and western Russia. The frontal zone establishing/extending from the developing surface low will be the focus for storm development in the early to mid afternoon. Given the good overlap of moderately strong shear and high instability, organized storms are expected, both with multicellular and supercellular modes. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. An exhanced LL shear and helicity seem favorable also for a development of a tornado or two. High PWAT values suggest intense rainfalls with flash flood threat can be expected as well. Clustering into a a MCS or two is possible later in the afternoon. However, a level 1 has been added to cover this threat along the front in the first half of the forecast period, although the main activity rapidly shifts outside our forecast area later.

... E Germany into Czech Republic, Slovakia and towards Baltic states ...

A short-wave impulse and a diffuse frontal zone cross the region in the afternoon hours where some storms are expected to form along it. But only marginal instability are overlapping with moderate shear. A threat level 1 was not issued as well organized or severe storms are not expected attm.

... NE Finland into NW Russia ...

A couple of waterspouts are possible beneath the cold midlevels releasing some instability in weak wind field in the lowest levels. The threat seem too marginal to issued a threat level 1. Storms will be diurnal nature and will decay until sunset.