Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 14 Mar 2012 06:00 to Thu 15 Mar 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 13 Mar 2012 22:29
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The main macrosynoptic feature influencing the weather pattern across Europe is a large ridge at mid and upper levels stretching from Northern Africa to Western Europe. With a cut-off low approaching southwestern Iberia and a significant trough covering Eastern and Southeastern Europe, situation is rather stagnant and of typical Omega pattern. Situation is very stable and dry across most of Europe, with conditions too hostile for any DMC. The only exception will be the coastlines of Southwestern Iberia late in the forecast period (evening to night hours) as the cut-off low filled with cooler airmass at mid-levels inducing marginal to weak latent instability is expected to approach the region. Even though enhanced low and mid level flow ahead of the cut-off will contribute to the increase in both DLS and SREH, high CIN values at the forward flank of the low will limit thunderstorm initiation in the belt with enhanced wind shear. Storms will most likely form near the center of the low, very isolated, in the region of weak wind shear and marginal instability. Therefore, no severe DMC is anticipated.