Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 31 Jan 2012 06:00 to Wed 01 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 31 Jan 2012 01:05
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for coastal west-central Italy, Sardinia, Corsica and Tyrrhenian sea mainly for excessive convective rainfall and strong wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Very cold polar airmass continues spreading weastwards into central Europe and northern Mediterranean. On its western flank, an upper low moves from the western Alps towards central Italy, characterized by well-defined DCVA. At surface, a secondary low forms over Genoa and moves towards SE.

DISCUSSION

... coastal west-central Italy, Sardinia, Corsica and Tyrrhenian sea ...

During the second half of the forecast period, a secondary cyclogenesis forms over bay of Genoa as a response to rapid height falls over relatively warm Mediterranean waters. Quite strong wind field accompanies this low, while it slowly moves towards central Italy. At least marginal instability will form mainly over the seas, while being within the moderately sheared environment. Expect some better organized storms mainly along the cold front, some of them may be severe and support excessive convective rain. Intensifying LL wind field around the low centre could result in some strong winds with the storms as well. Rather slow moving system and storms could cause some local flash floods. A level 1 has been issued to cover this threat.