Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 24 Jan 2012 06:00 to Wed 25 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Jan 2012 20:28
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for parts of SW and W Turkey mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

As an upper trough over SE Europe digs southward, cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ionian Sea during Tuesday afternoon. Warm and moist air ahead of the trough is advected towards the coastal areas of Greece, Macedonia, Bulgaria and W Turkey. Deep layer shear should stay below 15 m/s in most places but the onshore advection of unstable air with some hundred J/kg CAPE will likely result in intense convective rainfall along the coastlines and in the mountains. We issued a LVL1 for parts of W Turkey for excessive convective precipitation. An isolated heavy rain / flooding event in the surrounding areas is not ruled out.