Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 21 Jan 2012 06:00 to Sun 22 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 21 Jan 2012 08:32
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for northwestern Germany mainly for severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Crete and southern Turkey mainly for convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure remains firmly in place over the Azores and Iberian Peninsula, as well as over Russia. In between, a cascade of depressions from northern Atlantic, North Sea toward southeastern Europe, once again this winter. Today the main low pressure systems and unstable airmass are found across the eastern half of the North Sea and around Denmark into Poland, while another low tracks over Balkan into Black Sea causing storms from the southern Adriatic, Ionian into the Aegean Sea and around Turkey, where the cold front will organize into a linear convective system after 12Z, which should reach Cyprus toward 06Z eventually.

DISCUSSION

...northern Germany...

Between 18Z-21Z a potential vorticity anomaly enters the European mainland with the capability of forcing a convective line. With faster than 20 m/s winds in the lowest kilometers, as well as 35 m/s 0-6 km shear and over 15 m/s 0-1 km shear, and Bunkers storm vectors around 27 m/s, this convective line or bow echo clusters can be accompanied by severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado is not ruled out either.

...Crete, southern Turkey...

The cold front will drag a little over Crete with storms aligned in the flow direction, which combined with orography can locally lead to large precipitation amounts. The cold front will concentrate storms in a narrow region and will subsequently affect the Turkish coast with local flash floods. Waterspouts are also possible. Vertical wind shear will be moderate, but not sufficient for a solid tornado threat. Wind gusts of 20 m/s can occur as well.