Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Jan 2012 06:00 to Tue 17 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Jan 2012 23:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of SE-Spain mainly due to heavy rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep cyclonic vortex is situated over E-Europe and steers a cold and dry air mass to the south. This feature marks the eastern part of an ongoing omega pattern with ridging to its west over W/CNTRL Europe. A cold-core upper low drops south over the Iberian Peninsula with a weak surface depression evolving over the far SW-Mediterranean. As a response to that pressure drop, an easterly flow pattern evolves over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean with weak moisture advection expected. Mid-levels cool down a bit, so 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE are forecast within the highlighted area. DLS of 10-15 m/s may assist in an isolated better organized thunderstorm event with marginal hail and strong wind gusts. The forecast of waterspouts is not straightforward as no pronounced convergence zone can be detected. However, high resolution model data indicate the chance of numerous smaller scale vortices as the flow breaks down/changes to an easterly component, which may locally enhance convergence. Some LL CAPE is expected and a low-end waterspout risk will be added. However this environmental set-up is too marginal for a level 1.

We issued a level 1 for heavy rainfall along parts of SE-Spain. Reasoning is the slowly deepening vortex offshore with increasing onshore flow along its northern fringe. Somewhat augmented probabilities for back-building storms are forecast and a low-end level 1 will cover that risk.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the far SW-Black Sea with sleet and strong wind gusts. Otherwise no DMC is expected.