Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Jan 2012 06:00 to Sun 15 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Jan 2012 00:09
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure is now over eastern Europe (center: Belarus) and high pressure over western Europe (center: southern North Sea). With a strong northerly flow on the west side of the low, cold air from northern Scandinavia moves into eastern parts of Europe. Lapse rates are very steep and allow for convection in the cold airmass (roughly southeast Poland-Ukraine-Romania), but the low moisture content in the boundary layer (2.5-3 g/kg) and very weak CAPE will allow only very sparse lightning flashes (mostly initiated by tall objects) with a probability less than 15% so no area was drawn. Near the Black Sea slightly more moisture is available and the cold front may force some convection. The cold front also will trigger storms later at night off the Turkish coast. A cut-off low filled with unstable air lies on the Atlantic and will slowly approach the Iberian Peninsula.