Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 07 Jan 2012 06:00 to Sun 08 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 07 Jan 2012 00:32
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southwestern Turkey mainly for heavy rain and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large upper trough traverses the central and eastern Mediterranean. The cold upper air induces steep lapse rates and several hundreds J/kg MLCAPE over sea. Boundary layer (and mid level) moisture remains rather limited at 7 g/kg, so precipitation threat is reduced, but nevertheless due to slow passage of the cold front multiple storms can come ashore or keep backbuilding in the upslope flow which may locally cause excessive precipitation. Shear can reach marginally supportive values for supercells and tornadoes over land, mainly caused by friction in the strong flow. Convective wind gusts can reach higher than 20 m/s. Wind profiles in HiRLAM look more favorable for forward-building systems whereas in GFS they seem to be more favorable for growth on the rear side of cells.