Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 01 Jan 2012 06:00 to Mon 02 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 31 Dec 2011 21:12
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

***The ESTOFEX team wishes you a happy, healthy and meteorologically interesting 2012***

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A strong low pressure system is centered over Iceland and leads to rather mild and windy conditions in western Europe. Some cold air convection may occur in the wake of the cold front which moves across the British Isles on Sunday. Overall lightning activity is very weak and therefore, only a small 15% thunderstorm area is issued.

Remnants of a weak upper level disturbance are located over the eastern Mediterranean. A few hundred J/kg of CAPE should be in place and some thunderstorms may develop. As the background flow is very weak, an isolated waterspout cannot be discounted.