Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 13 Dec 2011 06:00 to Wed 14 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 12 Dec 2011 21:42
Forecaster: KOROSEC
A level 1 was issued for parts of northern UK mainly for severe winds.
A level 1 was issued for N France, Benelux and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and lesser extent for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
A large trough remains dominant feature across much of Europe. The main focus of interest is a rapidly developing surface cyclogenesis developing NW of UK moving east and affecting Scotland. Associated with this low, a cold front moves from the North Sea east across the central Europe. Another short-wave trough crosses Adriatic sea into S Balkans while transforming into an upper low.
DISCUSSION
... western Europe including N UK, Benelux, N France and NE Germany ...
Activity today will be connected to the strong surface cyclone forming on early Tuesday NW of UK and moving east across Scotland during the forecast period. It is characterized by very intense jet, providing strong shear across the broad area. The southern threat level area over Benelux and NW Germany will be affected by the cold front passage. Some uncertainities exist, but it seems possible that some convection might form along the moving front. Those storms could result in strong to severe winds given the very strong wind field and shear at all levels. However, impressive shear at lowest levels might also support a funnel/tornado there.
The northern UK was also put into level 1 threat as these areas will be affected by the strong surface low moving nearby. Expect strong to severe wind gusts as well, which could result in some wind damage. However, winds will mostly be non-convective while some weakly electrifies convection is possible within the polar airmass. As well as across the other highlighted lightning areas.
... southern Adriatic and Ionian sea and onshore areas ...
Affected by the transforming trough, some deep convection will maintain over the sea, but within limited shear so no serious severe threat is expected. Some storms might form a waterspout or two as well as some intense rain and flash floods. But with only isolated nature, no threat levels has been introduced here.
