Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 16 Nov 2011 06:00 to Thu 17 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 16 Nov 2011 00:18
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking situation has been prevalent, with a significant high pressure system almost stagnant over the central parts of the continent, centered over Germany. Only minor changes in the situation are forecast and that especially regarding the positions and depth of the troughs on the both sides of the ridge. While the western trough, with a distinct center over NW Iberia in the beggining of the forecast period, will undergo weakening and deamplification, trough from the Eastern Europe will amplify into the Central Mediterranean. Generally speaking, Mediterranean area should be in low geopotential fields with cool mid-level temperatures. Closer to the ground, much of Europe is covered by extensive high pressure area centered over Poland and shifting towards SE.

DISCUSSION

... Mediterranean ...

In the area highlighted by 15% thunderstorm prob chance, a shallow surface low pressure system advects very moist airmass from SE all the way towards the Balearic Islands. With high RH up to mid-levels of troposphere and rather weak steering flow, stagnant thunderstorms with efficient heavy rain production might form. Threat does not seem to be very pronounced, but some localised event is not ruled out. The two most probable locations is S coast of Sicily and NE coast of Tunisia. Models however do not agree on the position of the mesoscale initiation features and thus it is difficult to pick up the region with highest threat and introduce Level 1 for it. Still, it might become the subject of an update later on.