Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 03 Oct 2011 06:00 to Tue 04 Oct 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Oct 2011 12:33
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

On Monday, the upper flow pattern does not show any significant change. A plume of warm and moist air resides over the southern parts of the Mediterranean and leads to some low-end instability. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected over the Azores where a weak upper cut-off low is located. The regions with a probability of thunderstorms are covered by a 15% line as convective initiation becomes more difficult due to an increase in CIN and only weak dynamics.

A strong cyclonic vortex affects western Scandinavia on Monday but overall thermodynamic conditions speak against deep moist convection. Most of the strong to severe wind gusts over the Norwegian Sea and near the coastlines will be induced by the strong pressure gradient.