Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Apr 2011 06:00 to Sun 17 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 16 Apr 2011 05:05
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A very large elongated surface level high pressure area covers Europe, roughly between 40°N and 60°N. At mid levels, a low resides over Italy and part of the Balkan. The boundary of the cool and somewhat unstable airmass lies over Sicily, with some low level warm air advection and mid level potential vorticity creating upward motion and a wave in the front. Despite low instabilty, capping is weak in some places and LCL low, and some thundery convection can occur. GFS simulates also a small area of some 250 m²/s² SREH just east of Sicily. However, low CAPE and the very low LCLs make for not much of a hail threat, while 0-1 km shear is too weak for tornadoes. Storm motion is slow enough to cause large, but probably not severe convective rain sums at the east side of Sicily and the southern tip of Italy.