Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 14 Apr 2011 06:00 to Fri 15 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 13 Apr 2011 21:00
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough is located over Europe. The center of the low geopotential has a dipole structure that rotates counterclockwise. The northern part will move slowly westward over Hungary, the southern part will move north-eastward from the Aegean to the Black Sea. West of the low geopotential, a ridge over the eastern Atlantic will expand into the North Sea region. Cool air will dominate most of Europe except for Turkey and the Black Sea ahead of an approaching cold front. The boundary-layer is mostly dry with slightly better moisture along a cold front over Turkey and parts of the Mediterranean Sea.

DISCUSSION

West Turkey

A cold front will enter Turkey in the morning hours and will spread eastward. Ahead of this cold front, an air mass originating from the Mediterranean Sea will be advected northward into the Black Sea. This air mass will be relatively moist