Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 29 Mar 2011 06:00 to Wed 30 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 28 Mar 2011 22:54
Forecaster: KOROSEC

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Within the low geopotential heights across central Europe, two short-wave troughs are crossing during the forecast period. One will affect France/western Alps while the second one affects SW Balkans peninsula. A building ridge approaches the Iberian peninsula later towards Tuesday.

At surface, a rather stationary baroclinic zone streches across central Europe. It separates weakly unstable environment to its south from the cool air northwards. Models are in good agreement of marginal convection on going mostly during the daytime hours over the 50% highlighted areas, while being in the very low or zero shear. Severe storms are unlikely, though some wind gusts or marginal hail cannot be excluded. Especially over France where kinematics seem enhanced under the cold upper levels.

Elsewhere, a few diurnal driven showers / thunderstorms are expected, triggered by the local topography features.