Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 22 Mar 2011 06:00 to Wed 23 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Mar 2011 18:40
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for SE Spain mainly for excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

An extensive ridge/high pressure area expanding over much of Europe. A high-over-low pattern will bring a westwards progressing upper low across western Mediterranean sea and Iberia. Elsewhere, stable early spring conditions will prevail.

DISCUSSION

... coastal areas of SE Iberian Peninsula...

A westwards moving upper low over Iberian peninsula will be the main focus for convective activity today. Models simulate weak instability in the mainly moderate deep layer shear up to 20 m/s. The main activity will be aligned to the frontal zone during the second half of the period, where ESE-erly flow should bring moisture onshore to SE Spain. This wind profile will result in enhanced SREH which could support well organized storms. Expect high amounts of rain, while high moisture content combined with instability could bring intense convective rainfall and locally flash floods especially towards the morning hours of Wednesday.

A few briefly organized convective storms are also expected during the peak heating hours across hilly terrain of western Iberia and over Atlas in northern Marocco.