Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 20 Mar 2011 06:00 to Mon 21 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 19 Mar 2011 18:01
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

High pressure dominates the weather pattern in most parts of SW and central Europe. The upper jet stream stretches from Newfoundland via Iceland northeastwards towards the Arctic Ocean and cyclogenesis should be most likely in its vicinity. One rather strong low pressure system will develop near Iceland, moving towards NW Scandinavia. Only isolated showers and weakly electrified thunderstorms can be expected with this low over the Scottish Sea. Some convection may also develop over Portugal and NW Spain.

Weak pressure gradients and only 10 - 15 m/s deep layer shear in an environment with a few hundred J/kg CAPE are forecast for large parts of the Mediterranean region. An isolated funnel / waterspout cannot be completely ruled out but anything severe is too unlikely for a categorical threat level.