Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Mar 2011 06:00 to Mon 14 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Mar 2011 23:25
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A longwave trough is located over the eastern North Atlantic and will tend to propagate southward. Ahead of this trough, some low-end instability is forecast over the western Mediterranean in an environment with increasing deep layer shear but decreasing instability. Some 10-15 m/s of 0-6 km shear should be present over S Iberia where a few hundred J/kg CAPE will be created during the day. An isolated severe event over S Iberia cannot be ruled out but a threat level is not warranted.

Intense stratiform rainfall will affect S France and Italy during the day. 24 hour sums may locally exceed 100 mm.