Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 08 Mar 2011 06:00 to Wed 09 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Mar 2011 20:17
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for SE Mediterranean sea mainly for strong winds and intense rainfall and lesser extent for a tornado and large hail threat.

SYNOPSIS

A large blocking pattern over central Europe slowly collapses with large SE-wards digging long-wave trough from the NE Atlantic sea. On both sides of this "Omega" block like pattern, two upper level disturbance are located. A large upper low SW of Iberia and polar trough moving south across the Balkan peninsula. Under strong DCVA over Aegean sea, a surface cyclogenesis takes place and moves NE-wards across Turkey during the forecast period.

Another surface cyclone is maintaining beneath the upper low SW of Iberia, with unstable warm airmass advecting towards the peninsula. Scattered showers and storms are expected.

A powerful trough from Iceland towards Scandinavia results in rapidly forming strong surface low during the day. Marginal instability seems to become available along the surface front and within the polar maritime airmass in CAA behind the front. Some convection should occur, but electrified storms will be rather sparse.

DISCUSSION

... southeastern Mediterranean ...

Strong QG forcing is expected when DVCA rolls in and several hundreds of MLCAPE seems reasonable along the surface cold front. It will release deep convection and a few organized severe storms given the strong shear in place, mostly along the front. However, shear is limited in the lowest levels, so tornadoes are rather unlikely. Primary threat should be strong wind gusts and marginal hail given the strong low/mid-level jet and steep ML lapse rates in place. The convective activity will shift east of our forecast area later in the afternoon.