Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 22 Feb 2011 06:00 to Wed 23 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Feb 2011 18:15
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A dominant feature today are two large high pressure areas, one classic "Siberian high" and another extensive ridge over SW Europe. While in between, a large rather stationary trough with embedded short-wave trough which translates SE-wards across central Mediterranean. Accompanied by this feature, a surface cyclogenesis takes places and moves across Thyrrenian sea towards southern Mediterranean. The Siberian high maintains polar airmass with cold/stable winter conditions across much of east/central Europe.

DISCUSSION

... southern and southeastern Mediterranean ...

Rather strong synoptic-scale forcing will again take place over southern Mediterranean where scattered showers and thunderstorms will form. However models are in agreement of only marginal instability and weak shear in place. No organized storms can be expected. Though high moisture and slow moving storms could bring heavy rain locally, especially over Sicily where flash flood threat cannot be excluded either. SW flow and ascent ahead of this main trough should also bring instability over southern Aegean sea and SW Turkey where lifting onshore could bring mostly heavy rainfall threat.

There is a narrow area of somehow enhanced instability near the surface front along the N Algerian coast. There, marginal instability overlaps with quite strong shear. This could become enough for organized storms where some could become severe. Most likely posing some threat for strong winds and brief funnel/tornado given the quite impressive LL wind shear there.

But overall, too limited threat and probabillities seem not to warant a threat level anywhere over the highlighted areas.