Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Feb 2011 06:00 to Fri 11 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Feb 2011 09:36
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Between low geopotential over north-eastern Europe and a high over the west Mediterranean a north-westerly flow will continue on Thursday. Over north-western Europe, a new high builds during the period. Downstream a remaining short-wave trough will move over the British Isles and Germany. This is associated with a tongue of better low-level moisture that spreads from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea and Germany. Weak lapse rates are present that will only improve in the center of the short-wave trough. Latest models indicate weak CAPE over England where neutral lapse rates near the trough center will overlap with the low-level moisture. Some showers are forecast that may produce isolated lightning. Except for north-western Europe, low-level moisture is very weak over the forecast area, and only a few isolated thunderstorms are not ruled out, especially over the east Mediterranean Sea.