Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Jan 2011 06:00 to Fri 21 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Jan 2011 22:00
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Low geopotential dominates Europe, and cold air masses have spread across most of the forecast are, leading to poor low-level moisture. The boundary-layer moisture is expected to recover slightly over the Mediterranean Sea south of Italy and south-west of Iberia on Thursday. From central Europe, a polar trough will migrate into the central Mediterranean region during the period. This will be associated with steepening lapse rates above the sea surface. The center of this trough will reach the Mediterranean Sea late in the period. The overlap of steep lapse rates with some low-level convergence may cause some showers that can be thundery given cold equilibrium levels. The weak moisture will be a limiting factor, but thunderstorms seem to be quite likely. Weak vertical wind shear is expected and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Farther east, a relatively moist south-westerly flow is forecast to the south of Italy. Late in the period, models expect increasing lapse rates as the polar trough approaches. Along a cold front that will slowly move eastwards, embedded showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Severe storms are not likely as the vertical wind shear is weak.