Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 17 Jan 2011 06:00 to Tue 18 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Jan 2011 22:01
Forecaster: DAHL

... SYNOPSIS ...

A broad meandering upper westerly flow is present over Europe with a trough slowly moving into the western parts of Europe on Monday. A rather narrow plume of warm air is present east of this feature and will affect western Iberia, western France, and towards the end of the period, also Benelux and W Germany. A weak frontal wave is anticipated along the attendant cold front, reaching the Channel region on Tuesday morning.

A quasi-stationary upper low persists over the eastern Mediterranean regions.

... DISCUSSION ...

... western France into the Benelux countries ...

GFS and WRF are showing weak CAPE signals primarily just to the cool side of the theta-e plume over France. The mesoscale details of this frontal boundary remain unclear, but it seems that there exists a small chance of a stronlgy forced, shallow convection along the cold front. Shear profiles may be marginally supportive of an isolated severe wind gusts and maybe even a brief tornado over the coastal regions of western France in the late evening hours.

However, overall forcing for upward motion and shear in the lowest layers seem to be too weak to support an appreciable severe weather threat.

... eastern Mediterranean Sea ...

Scattered thunderstorms should persist over the E Mediterranean in association with the upper cut-off cyclone, which will slowly drop south and east during the period. Although shear/instability should be too weak to support an organized severe threat, the low-level buoyancy appears to be supportive of a few waterspouts.