Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 13 Jan 2011 06:00 to Fri 14 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Jan 2011 19:27
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION

Low geopotential is located over the eastern parts of Europe and extends into the east Mediterranean, where showers and thunderstorms are forecast. The low geopotential re-organizes as another polar trough moves eastward on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad ridge moves across western and central Europe. A strong mid-level jet curves around this ridge from the British Isles to Germany and the Balkans. Low surface pressure over the North Sea and the British Isles allows the advection of warm and quite moist low-level air originating from the Bay of Biscay to central Europe and the northern Balkans. This air mass is expected to be quite stable as it cools at low levels, and substantial instability is not likely. Farther west, a moist maritime air mass affects the British Isles and will gradually become unstable as a mid-level trough approaches on Thursday. Showers and weakly electrified thunderstorms are expected to move onshore late in the period. Small hail and some wind gusts are possible with these storms, but severe thunderstorms are not forecast.