Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 11 Jan 2011 06:00 to Wed 12 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 11 Jan 2011 00:55
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A broad upper trough gradually shifts eastward over the central and eastern Mediterranean, resulting in scattered thunderstorms over an extensive area. Cold mid-levels atop warm SSTs of the Mediterranean cause moderate SBCAPE of roughly 500 J/kg. Shear is weak to non existent, which limits degree of thunderstorm organization. Local mesoscale boundaries could assist in a few spouts, especially within the 50% thunderstorm area.

An isolated short-lived thunderstorm event is possible over south-central France around noon with some LL SBCAPE forecast but model discrepancies remain significant with this event. No thunderstorm area was yet drawn.

Otherwise, no thunderstorms are forecast beneath progressive flow over N-Europe.