Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 11 Jan 2011 00:00 to Tue 11 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 11 Jan 2011 00:30
Forecaster: DAHL

... SYNOPSIS ...

A meandering upper westerly flow is present over Europe, with a southern-stream upper trough extending into the Mediterranean, which is making slow eastward progress. An upper jet streak will cross western France late Monday night. This feature will be accompanied by a SFC low traveling from the British Isles into the North Sea by the end of the period. Rather quiescent synoptic SFC conditions will prevail over the Mediterranean regions.


... DISCUSSION ...


... central Mediterranean regions ...

Convection will likely persist over the central Mediterranean ahead of and beneath the eastward-migrating upper trough. CAPE and shear should be weak throughout the region, so that the organized severe threat should be very low. However, an isolated waterspout or two seem to be possible over the western portions of the Mediterranean and, late in the period, also over the Adriatic Sea.