Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 07 Jan 2011 06:00 to Sat 08 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 06 Jan 2011 21:43
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for N-Portugal and extreme NW-Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Progressive pattern continues over Europe. A pronounced upper trough approaches W-Europe during the forecast with an intense LL depression drawing near the English Channel during the night. The depression is already in an occlusion stage with a well mixed air mass present over the Bay of Biscay, the Iberian Peninsula and France. CAPE will be slim, so thunderstorm probabilities remain low throughout the period despite the W coast of Portugal, where an isolated tornado/severe wind gust event may occur. Kinematics improve during the forecast especially over NW-France, but no level area will be introduced due to limited thunderstorm chances.

A weak trough dissipates over SW-Spain during the forecast and serves as focus for a distinct thetae tongue with better moisture advection. Hence, training showers my cause heavy rainfall over the SW coast of Spain, but overall synoptic pattern does not support a level 1 area for heavy rainfall.

Otherwise there exists no thunderstorm risk.