Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Dec 2010 06:00 to Tue 14 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Dec 2010 04:38
Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 was issued across southern Greece and the Aegean regions mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A deep long-wave upper trough is anchored over the central portions of Europe with an attendant low-level frontal zone curving roughly from western Scandinavia across France into the northern Mediterranean. A vorticity maximum at the troughs periphery is instigating cyclogenesis along the low-level frontal boundary over the Mediterranean. The resultant SFC low should migrate from the northern Ionian Sea into the southern Aegean regions during the period. A plume of weakly unstable air should be drawn into the warm-sector of this cyclone and provide a focus for convective development.

... DISCUSSION ...

... southern Ionian Sea into the Aegean regions ...

It seems that weak and somewhat shallow instability will develop in a rather narrow plume ahead of the cold front over the Ionian/Aegean regions. With about 20 m/s, deep-layer shear will be somewhat marginal given the meager thermodynamic support, so that storms may struggle to become organized. However, LLS well in excess of 10 m/s and strong low-level flow suggest that isolated and marginally severe wind gusts, maybe along with a brief tornado or two could result. Although the overall severe threat is limited by the poor thermodynamics, a marginal level 1 threat is introduced.